The Earth receives 174 petawatts (1.74 ×1017 W) of incoming solar radiation.
The total worldwide energy (oil, coal, gas, nuclear, and renewable) consumption is 1.504×1013 W
That says that the rapport is 1/10 000. Our participation in Earth energy balance is very small. We are too weak for the competition with Sun.
How have we succeeded to do global warming? And have we done?
How have we succeeded to do global warming? And have we done?
In order to respond the question “Is Global Warming (GW) Man-Made?” I will discuss the following problems:
Experimental data on global warming
Reliability of data on global warming
Solar energy balance
Greenhouse effect
Historical climate change
Experimental data on global warming
(Fig. 1) represents the Earth surface temperature anomaly measured by terrestrial climate stations as a function of time. [1]
Congratulations, You Just Survived The 5 Hottest Years on Record
https://www.sciencealert.com/the-planet-s-hottest-five-years-on-record-are-the-last-five-years
Zero anomaly (blue line ) represents the average temperature. The temperatures close to average temperature has been from1940 to 1980. From 1880 to 1940 the Earth temperature has been cooler and from 1980 to 2010 has been hotter than average.
These results are used by GW scientists to show that GW exists.
Fig.1a Earth temperature measured from the space (NASA).
NASA states : “Unlike the surface-based temperatures,
global temperature measurements of the Earth's lower atmosphere obtained from satellites reveal no definitive warming trend over the past two decades. The slight trend that is in the data actually is mild cooling. The largest fluctuations in the satellite temperature data are not from any man-made activity but from the natural phenomena such as large volcanic eruptions from Mt. Pinatubo, and from El Niño. So the programs which model global warming in a computer say the temperature of the Earth's lower atmosphere should be going up markedly, but actual measurements of the temperature of the lower atmosphere reveal no such pronounced activity."
Global warming scientists claim that the GW is due to accumulation of carbon dioxide in Earth atmosphere, but there is no similarity between the curve of Earth temperature anomaly (Fig 1) and the content of carbon dioxide in Earth atmosphere (Fig 2).
Between 1940 and 1980, there is a small change in Earth temperature, while carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases 6 times.
Between 1940 and 1980, there is a small change in Earth temperature, while carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases 6 times.
Fig. 2 Global fossil carbon emissions 1800–2007.
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere#/media/File:Global_Carbon_Emissions.svg)
Terestrial observations of temperature changes
NASA satelite images show the changing Artic sea ice coverage from August 2012 (left) to August 2013 (right) -- a growth of about a million square miles. (NASA)
Ice melting may be due to other causes than GW.
Ice melting may be due to other causes than GW.
Researchers discovered volcanic heat source under major Antarctic glacier
https://phys.org/news/2018-06-volcanic-source-major-antarctic-glacier.html
Are the data reliable? Not all of them.
Brooks investigated Historical Climate Network (USHCN) sites in Indiana, and assigned 16% of the sites an ‘excellent’ rating, 59% a ‘good’ rating, 12.5% a ‘fair’ rating, and 12.5% ‘poor’ rating.(May 2007 Purdue University West Lafayette, Indiana)
On the site http://climate.colostate.edu/pdfs/Pielke-etal_BAMS_Jun07.pdf
there is a paper of American researchers “Documentation of Uncertainties and Biases Associated with Surface Temperature Measurement Sites for Climate Change Assessment.”
Authors: PIELKE—CIRES and ATOC, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado; NIELSEN-GAMMON—Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas; DAVEY— Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada; ANGEL— Illinois State Water Survey, Department of Natural Resources, Champaign, Illinois; BLISS AND DOESKEN— Atmospheric Science, Colorado State
University, Fort Collins, Colorado; CAI—Department of Meteorology,The Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida; FALL AND NIYOGI—Departments of Agronomy and Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana; GALLO—Center for Satellite Applications and Research, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, Maryland; HALE—CIRA, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado; HUBBARD AND LIN—School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska–Lincoln, Lincoln, Nebraska; LI—Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, Maryland; RAMAN—Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
The conclusion of the paper: “The use of temperature data from poorly sited stations can lead to a false sense of confidence in the robustness of multi-decadal surface air temperature trend assessments”
More serious problem is that data do not exist for all countries for all periods cited by GW scientists.
But the biggest problem with the US data is that the weather in US is influenced by El Nino and La Nina.
Energy balance of the Earth
Fig 3 shows incoming and outgoing radiation
Fig 4, Solar radiation spectrum shows water and CO2 absorptions bands. Water absorption bands are much stronger than that of CO2
Fig 5. The "radiative forcing" (that is the additional energy sent to the ground) for all the modifications induced by man that influence the energy exchanges in the atmosphere (in Watts per square meter). From IPCC, 2007
Two important causes of the Earth temperature change are Greenhouse Gases increasing the Earth temperature and Earth Albedo lowering it.
Greenhouse effect (GHE)
Gas molecules absorb energy emitted by Sun or Earth and emit it. Part of emitted energy goes up to space, another part of energy goes down back to the Earth heating it. This effect presented in the right low corner of figure 3 is named Greenhouse effect (GHE)
water vapor (H2O), 0.40% over full atmosphere, typically 1%-4% at surface
carbon dioxide ( CO2) 0.038%
methane CH2) 0.000179%
nitrous oxide ( N2O) 2x10−6%
ozone ( O3) 0% to 7x10−6%
GHE gases content in atmosphere:
water vapor (H2O), 0.40% over full atmosphere, typically 1%-4% at surface
carbon dioxide ( CO2) 0.038%
methane CH2) 0.000179%
nitrous oxide ( N2O) 2x10−6%
ozone ( O3) 0% to 7x10−6%
The distinction between the greenhouse effect and real greenhouses can be found at
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_effect
Excerpt
“The term "greenhouse effect" can be a source of confusion as actual greenhouses do not function in the same way as the atmospheric greenhouse effect does. A greenhouse is usually built of glass, plastic, or a plastic-type material. It heats up mainly because the sun warms the ground inside it, which then warms the air in the greenhouse. The air continues to heat because it is confined within the greenhouse, unlike the environment outside the greenhouse where warm air near the surface rises and mixes with cooler air aloft. This can be demonstrated by opening a small window near the roof of a greenhouse: the temperature will drop considerably Thus greenhouses work by a different mechanism, primarily by preventing convective cooling”.
There are many papers on GHE, pro and contra.
Pro paper: http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm
I found the following paper more reliable because it is written by a physicist and shows where physics laws were not respected in GHE discussions.
http://brneurosci.org/co2.html, its conclusion
• “Although carbon dioxide is capable of raising the Earth's overall temperature, the IPCC's (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) predictions of catastrophic temperature increases produced by carbon dioxide have been challenged by many scientists. In particular, the importance of water vapor (see Fig.4) is frequently overlooked by environmental activists and by the media. The above discussion shows that the large temperature increases predicted by many computer models are unphysical and inconsistent with results obtained by basic measurements. Skepticism is warranted when considering computer-generated projections of global warming that cannot even predict existing observations.”
Excerpt
“The term "greenhouse effect" can be a source of confusion as actual greenhouses do not function in the same way as the atmospheric greenhouse effect does. A greenhouse is usually built of glass, plastic, or a plastic-type material. It heats up mainly because the sun warms the ground inside it, which then warms the air in the greenhouse. The air continues to heat because it is confined within the greenhouse, unlike the environment outside the greenhouse where warm air near the surface rises and mixes with cooler air aloft. This can be demonstrated by opening a small window near the roof of a greenhouse: the temperature will drop considerably Thus greenhouses work by a different mechanism, primarily by preventing convective cooling”.
There are many papers on GHE, pro and contra.
Pro paper: http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm
I found the following paper more reliable because it is written by a physicist and shows where physics laws were not respected in GHE discussions.
http://brneurosci.org/co2.html, its conclusion
• “Although carbon dioxide is capable of raising the Earth's overall temperature, the IPCC's (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) predictions of catastrophic temperature increases produced by carbon dioxide have been challenged by many scientists. In particular, the importance of water vapor (see Fig.4) is frequently overlooked by environmental activists and by the media. The above discussion shows that the large temperature increases predicted by many computer models are unphysical and inconsistent with results obtained by basic measurements. Skepticism is warranted when considering computer-generated projections of global warming that cannot even predict existing observations.”
Earth Albedo
Albedo is the fraction of solar energy (shortwave radiation) reflected from the Earth back into space. Earth Albedo grew after 1998 showing cooling period. Change to the Earth's albedo is a powerful driver of climate. When the planet's reflectivity increases, more incoming sunlight is reflected back into space. This has a cooling effect on global temperatures. Conversely, a drop in albedo warms the planet.
Fig 6: Albedo anomalies reconstructed from ISCCP satellite data (black) and Earthshine-observed albedo anomalies (blue). The right hand vertical scale shows negative radiative forcing (eg - cooling). One of causes of the albedo rising is deforestation.
Albedo anomaly is changing strongly from one year to another (0 to 7W/sq m).
Albedo anomaly is changing strongly from one year to another (0 to 7W/sq m).
The solar constant - the amount of incoming solar electromagnetic radiation per unit area that would be incident on a plane perpendicular to the rays has a value 1361 W/m². The total net anthropogenic (man made) radiation forcing is 1,5 W/m² (Fig.5). The man-made radiation [1,5 (W.m-²) /1361 (W.m-²) = 0.11% of solar constant] is very small compared to the Sun radiation.
Historic climate change
Fig 7. Historic climate change (millions of years ago)
The historic climate change shows that we are in a cool period and warming:
today Earth temp ~14 oCClimate Fluctuations in Our Present-Day Interglacial Period
Thausands years ago
http://www.lakepowell.net/sciencecenter/paleoclimate.htm
- 18,000 years ago - The climate begins to warm
- 15,000 years ago - Advance of glaciers halts and sea levels begin to rise
- 10,000 years ago - Ice Age mega fauna goes extinct
- 8,000 years ago - Bering Strait land bridge becomes drowned, cutting of migration of men and animals.
- 6,000 years ago - The Holocene Maximum warm period
The basic processes that determine Earth climate
1. Astronomical Earth parameters
2. Oceans
3. Greenhouse Effect
4. Earth black body radiation
Astronomical Earth parameters
Astronomer Milutin Milankovitch (1879 – 1958) http://www.seed.slb.com/subcontent.aspx?id=4070studied the variations in the shape of the Earth’s orbit around the Sun and the tilt of the Earth’s axis. He theorized that these cyclical changes and the interactions among them were responsible for long-term climate. His cycles of the climate change are roughly 100,000;
26,000 and 11,000 years.
More recent evidence of climatic variations
The eruption of the Toba supervolcano on Sumatra (Indonesia), 70,000 to 75,000 years ago reduced the average global temperature by 5 degrees Celsius for several years and may have triggered an ice age. Simulation of this event showed that the climate recovered over a few decades.
[ Robock, A., C.M. Ammann, L. Oman, D. Shindell, S. Levis, and G. Stenchikov (2009)]. [ "Did the Toba volcanic eruption of ~74k BP produce widespread glaciation?". Journal of Geophysical Research 114: D10107]
A much smaller but similar effect occurred after the eruption of Krakatoa in 1883, island between Java and Sumatra in Indonesia when global temperatures fell for about 5 years in a row. Average global temperatures fell by as much as 1.2 degrees Celsius in the year following the eruption. Weather patterns continued to be chaotic for years and temperatures did not return to normal until 1888.
Earth has recovered after these two catastrophes.
Processes stabilizing Earth’s temperature
The basic items that stabilize the Earth climate are:
1. Water (oceans, clouds, water vapors)
2. Earth blackbody radiation
An excellent paper “Global Energy Transfer, Atmosphere and Ocean Circulation, Climate “
http://www.indiana.edu/~geol105/1425chap4.htm
discusses the stabilizing effect of water on climate
Excerpt:“Water has a substantially higher heat capacity than rocks (by a factor of five), and therefore the oceans can store much more heat than the land surfaces of the planet. Because the oceans also cover about 70% of the Earth surface and are on average 3.8 km deep, they are the major heatsink of the planet and serve as temperature buffers for the ocean/atmosphere system. The bulk of the thermal energy at the Earth surface is stored in the oceans. The large thermal inertia of the oceans is a key factor in stabilizing Earth's climate.”
Earth radiation. The Stefan–Boltzmann law
This law states that amount of thermal radiation emitted per second per unit area of the surface of a black body is directly proportional to the fourth power of its absolute temperature. That is
W = σ x T4
where W is the total energy radiated per unit area per unit time, T is the temperature in Kelvin, and σ = 5.67×10-8 W m-2 K-4 is the Stefan–Boltzmann constant.
If we suppose that the Earth temp T = 14 oC = 287 K increases by 1oC to T=15 oC = 288 K, the increase in emitted energy will be 1.4%.
(W1-Wo)/Wo=1.4% is a big energetic change.
“Scientists and skeptics”
There is a site which considers that all scientists are for global warming, but in reality some of them are skeptics.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php
There are 75 questions of skeptics and ‘science” response to them.
I think if someone can put 75 questions to a problem, we can consider that the problem is too complex to be solved.
Some of these questions:
#5 "Models are unreliable"
Answer: While there are uncertainties with climate models, they successfully reproduce the past and have successfully predicted future climate change.
#12"Al Gore got it wrong“
Answer: While there are minor errors in An Inconvenient Truth, the main truths presented - evidence to show mankind is causing global warming and its various impacts is consistent with peer reviewed science
#74 "Global temperatures dropped sharply in 2007's “
Answer: 2007's dramatic cooling is driven by strong La Nina conditions which historically has caused similar drops in global temperature. It is also exacerbated by unusually low solar activity.
31,000 American scientists signed the following petition:
http://www.petitionproject.org/
Global Warming Petition
This petition has been signed by over 31,000 American scientists
• We urge the United States government to reject the global warming agreement that was written in Kyoto, Japan in December, 1997, and any other similar proposals. The proposed limits on greenhouse gases would harm the environment, hinder the advance of science and technology, and damage the health and welfare of mankind.
There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gasses is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's climate. Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth."
Conclusions
The surface temperature measurements showing rising of the Earth temperature may not be totally reliable. The satellite measurements of the Earth temperature and reflectivity shows a mild cooling. There are many natural influences on the Earth climate. However, Earth has temperature stabilizing factors by means of the water balance, the Earth radiation and others.
If the global warming exists, it is most probably due to natural fluctuations, it is not Man-made. We have to study more thoroughly the climate change in order to understand its causes and effects.
Addendum
The most productive expedition of the ship "Academician Mstislav Keldysh" in recent years was that, despite the global warming, which scientists talk about, since 2011 in the North Atlantic there has been steady cooling of surface waters, and intermittent water warming has ceased.
Translation from Russan text:
"Одним из главных выводов стало то, что, несмотря на глобальное потепление, про которое говорят ученые всего мира, в северной Атлантике с 2011 года наблюдается устойчивое охлаждение поверхностных вод, прекратилось потепление промежуточных вод".
http://www.gazeta.ru/science/2015/11/30_a_7921283.shtml
